Undoubtedly, the build-up to the 2023 general elections has been intriguing all the way. This isn't so strange when compared to what we do witness as candidates jostle to clinch their parties' ticket to contest in the general elections. This time around, the story isn't so different in the two major political parties in Nigeria- All progressives' congress(APC) and Peoples' democratic party (PDP). At the time, about 25 individuals have expressed interest in the country's top job within the APC; including the incumbent vice president, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Governors of Kogi state (Yahaya Bello) and Ekiti state (Kayode Fayemi), current ministers of Niger delta (Godswill Akpabio), Transportation (Rotimi Amaechi), education(state) (Emeka Nwajuiba) and Justice, Abubakar Malami, among others.
Judging by the austere times that Nigeria currently passes through, one would have thought that the exorbitant price attached to the presidential nomination form will serve well like a scarecrow that would turn off some prospective aspirants and in turn, downsize. Instead, to the consternation of every average Nigerian, the forms were picked up in droves. Whether by an act of fate or a predetermined line of action, the APC Secretariat suddenly became a house of gold, as it had realized billions of naira in a matter of weeks.
This has however led to a public outcry on various social media platforms, with many people asking the nation's anti-graft agency to launch a special investigation to probe the source of the aspirants' wealth. This has also uncovered a kettle of fish as it pertains to the corrupt nature of the public service in Nigeria: Given the non-challance of the APC-led Federal government to the prolonged ASUU strike, the scenario where political office holders thronged the APC Secretariat to obtain a 100 million naira nomination form has only infuriated the younger population who have taken to the streets to protest against the seemingly intractable FG-ASUU impasse.
The reason why the APC ended up with such a long list of aspirants is not yet clear and this leaves us with an array of questions. Although, there were reports that the forms were procured for some aspirants by some groups or group of individuals, yet we choose not to be ignorant of the many intricate games and tricks of Nigerian politics. Infact, one can't swiftly rule out ostentation as part of the ploy of the ruling party to hold the opposition parties in contempt; it really looks like a subtle mind game being played by the APC on its rivals. I hope not that they think that by so doing, they can take Nigeria for a ride!
APC has passed a message of intimidation and it was well delivered. To say the least, I do not think all the aspirants jostling for the presidential ticket are damn serious about it but how do we explain their willingness and charity in wagering such a handsome amount of money just like that, at least the form isn't gold-plated, neither is it a jackpot. If this eventually rings true, then we should be in anticipation of multiple step-downs in the coming days.
Currently, within the APC, there are a number of power blocs all of which are galvanizing with momentum to produce the candidate. First, we noticed the camp of the widely acclaimed National leader of the party, (a position that is more ceremonial than functional), Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. The former Lagos Governor had declared his 'lifetime ambition' very early this year, taking his campaign train first to the President and then to every major stakeholder, both past and present as far as Nigerian politics is concerned.
Without gainsay, the veteran and tactical politician is a big fish in Nigerian politics and baring any major obstacle, he looks set to clinch the ticket. However, his political stature and pedigree will not be enough to win him this ticket, as there exists some elements within the APC that are antithetical to his drive. Frankly speaking, his support is a far cry from broadbase within the party, as even the man in Aso rock doesn't seem to be putting his weight behind him. Hence, the task looks much Herculean and is miles far from a piece of meat.
Tinubu can readily boast of massive votes from Lagos delegates because that's his state and like a personal property, he maintains a firm grip on it. He could also get some backing from Osun state where Oyetola, his cousin serves as Governor but this still hangs in the balance, owing to the fact that the interior minister, Rauf Aregbesola is no more on thesame page with him. This played out when Aregbesola fielded his preferred candidate, other than Oyetola in the Osun APC primaries. With this imbroglio still in force, the fate of Oyetola in securing his seat is threatened and as such, the possibility of Tinubu getting the needed support from this state becomes slimmer, should in case the pendulum refuses to swing in APC's favour.
As for other states in the south west, he might not find it easy. With the declaration of Governor Fayemi of Ekiti State, his chances of getting votes from there has been taken. In Ondo State, Akeredolu isn't in a close league with Tinubu, instead, he might be drumming up support for his friend, Governor Fayemi. Thesame case applies to Ogun state, where Dapo Abiodun has declared support for VP Osinbajo, coupled with the fact that Senator Ibikunle Amosun is also nursing an ambition.
In Oyo, the spoils will be shared among the aspirants, preferably the lion share going to the highest bidder. Here, Tinubu's immense wealth comes into play, as he will deploy the veritable weapon in his disposal to sway the minds of delegates in his favour.
VP Osinbajo's declaration came after a long period of agitations by various support groups. Claims, especially those arising from the camp of Tinubu had repetitively had it that the Veep can't contest against his boss (Osinbajo was Tinubu's commissioner during the latter's tenure as Lagos Governor). But to the perceived surprise and anger of Tinubu loyalists, the law professor made his early morning declaration via his social media handles. A declaration that has been condemned and criticized by major influencers across and beyond Nigeria.
Coincidentally, Osinbajo's declaration was made during the easter celebrations and this gave his antagonists an opportune time to advertise their derogatory appellation of a 'betrayer', as they compared him with Judas who betrayed his master, Jesus Christ during the easter period! Shortly before his declaration, the VP had met with 12 APC Governors to inform them of his ambition, the next day, he hosted the senators under the umbrella of the APC to an iftar dinner at the Aguda House, the official residence of the VP. He has also met with the APC caucus at the house of representatives.
Osinbajo's strong point is Ogun state, under Dapo Abiodun. He might have pockets of delegates votes here and that's if Ibikunle Amosun steps down for him, otherwise, it remains a conflict zone. As a matter of fact, much of him was not known in Nigerian politics before his emergence as the vice president, so he is up for a tight contest with veterans like Tinubu, Amaechi and the likes.
The south-eastern agitation seems not to have received the needed attention within the APC, as the party had refused to zone the position to the area. Aspirants from the area in the party are also deemed to be not so popular. However, their south-south counterparts looks more likely to get some votes. Rotimi Amaechi hails from the south-south region and has kept the political analysts guessing, whether he is the anointed candidate of the President.
Recall that Amaechi had at a time last year been turbaned in Daura, the hometown of Buhari and recently, the emir of Daura had endorsed his candidature. On the flip side, the talks about former President Goodluck Jonathan has sparked fresh conversations around APC Primaries. With the announcement that Jonathan is now a card carrying member of the party coming from the Presidential spokesperson and the noticeable closeness that had developed between the duo in recent times, evidenced by a number of close door meetings, it leaves us also guessing if he is the president-endorsed aspirant.
But considering the current engagements of the former President with the Economic community of west African states (ECOWAS) and other international bodies, he seems not to be too keen on contesting. Only if there are some underground works going on will he achieve something tangible in the primaries. Who knows? The supposed Miyetti-Allah cattle breeders association of Nigeria (MACBAN) that procured his nomination form might have also been secretly campaigning for him.
There have also been speculations that the APC might be settling for a northern candidate in the event where the main opposition party, PDP elects Atiku Abubakar as their candidate, since the latter had earlier jettisoned zoning. This had played out with the recent expression of interest by the current senate president, Ahmed Lawan who hails from Kogi state. Also, a former Governor and a sitting senator, Orji Uzor Kalu, who earlier declared his ambition but had dropped it, indicating that he is stepping down for Ahmed Lawan. In some reports, it has been speculated that nine additional aspirants will step down for the Senate President.
Ahead of APC primaries later this month, there are lots of permutations and calculations going on. The south western caucus had met some weeks ago at Marina, Lagos with the resolution that the party's candidate must emerge from the region but get your mind primed with the fact that the outcome of the PDP primaries will largely determine where the APC will tilt towards. As a matter of fact, we should not be surprised at the postponement of the APC' primary elections because they might need some time to put things in order. This will be in full cooperation with INEC to effect some changes to the election timetable.
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