ONDO GUBER POLLS: A THREE HORSE RACE.

OPINION.

In a dramatic twist of events, the October 10 Governorship Election in Ondo state is getting more intriguing than it was least expected. The good people of the sunshine state will be going to the polls to choose who governs them for the next four years, as they have been afforded the ample opportunity to choose from a wide range of individuals being presented by the seventeen political parties in the state.

However, in a community of minors, there will always be a major and so, the three major political parties that are believed to be enjoying wide popularity with the people include; the long-standing Peoples' Democratic party(PDP), the ruling All Progressives Congress(APC) and the newcomer Zenith Labour Party(ZLP). Eyitayo Jegede will be flying the flag of the PDP, while the incumbent Governor Rotimi Akeredolu flies that of the APC and interestingly, Akeredolu's deputy, Agboola Ajayi will be contesting against his boss on the platform of the ZLP.

The upcoming Ondo Guber poll has continually posed as a riddle to many political analysts and experts, as they have been put in a tight corner as to determining who will carry the day among the three candidates. The tension in the political space of Ondo state is getting heightened with the passing of each day, as various calculations and permutations are going on in the camp of the respective candidates in order to sway votes in their favour. The issue of Zoning had always proved as a serious hurdle that every political party must cross if it will record outstanding success at the polls and this we've seen come to play in the build-up to this election.

Akeredolu's APC had thought it wise in their own discretion to pick a running mate who is a southerner, Lucky Aiyedatiwa, so as to dip into the possible pool of votes that might accrue to ZLP's Agboola Ajayi, who is also from the South. Recognising the major significance of the South in Ondo elections, the PDP do not wish to be left out of the southern game, so its candidate, Eyitayo Jegede was advised to pick a southern running mate, Gboluga Ikengboju, the lawmaker representing Okitipupa/Irele Federal constituency at the National Assembly.

The calculations continued with the ZLP'S candidate choosing his running mate, Gboyega Adegbenro from the central senatorial district to pull some votes off the wagon of PDP's Eyitayo Jegede. A fun fact is that Akeredolu was left alone with his Northern Senatorial district, perhaps to pull in all the votes from that area but, a salient factor that political gladiators might be considering is the fact that it is the stronghold of the incumbent and might seem impervious to any other political clan.

At this point, it is noteworthy to divert our attention to the power play that ensued between Akeredolu and his deputy, Ajayi, sometimes in June. It all started with the news media being awashed of reports that Ajayi became absent from the Government House for a number of days and that, not without speculations that he might be defecting to the opposition PDP. However, his romance with the PDP was not going to last as he lost to Jegede at the primaries. Thereafter, he left for the ZLP where he finally got the ticket to contest the Governorship seat of Ondo state.

A thorn in the flesh is Ajayi to Akeredolu, as several efforts by the latter to disrobe the former of his position proved futile. Akeredolu incited the state legislature against his estranged deputy by levelling an allegation of gross misconduct against him but the process met with a brick wall at both ends; less than two-third of the House of Assembly members signed the impeachment notice and the eventual rejection of the notice by the chief Justice of Ondo state, owing to the fact that the notice was not signed by the quorum of the house and the allegations were totally unfounded.

Therefore, in retaliation to the uncooperative gestures of the four legislators who refused to sign the impeachment notice on Ajayi, Akeredolu executed a witchhunt on the lawmakers via his errand boy, Speaker of the House, Bamidele Oleyelogun. The lawmakers were suspended from the House indefinitely and it was reported that they were excluded from the 2020 KIA Sportage official vehicles that were given to the legislators by the Governor, they were also barred from entering into the Assembly complex even after a High court sitting in Akure invalidated their suspension.

Agboola Ajayi remained the Deputy Governor despite all efforts to unseat him and he is already an established contender for the office of the Governor, as it was reported in some quarters that a gale of defection is already rocking the PDP and parts of APC ahead of next month's polls. Many political analysts have identified Ajayi as a tactical game changer and a noiseless go-getter. A major boost to his ambition came on the 8th of September when the former PDP spokesperson in Ondo state and a Governorship aspirant on the platform of the PDP, Banji Okunomo defected to the ZLP, claiming that his over 5000 supporters across the 18 LGAs are with him in this move.

Okunomo's act of pitching his tent with Ajayi might have sent shockwaves down the spine of the two major political parties; APC and especially the PDP. This might also be confirming the statement of APC's National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, at the Saturday's mega rally in Akure where he stated that the PDP is gradually dying in Ondo state and it is the October elections that will nail its coffin. The PDP had however rebuffed the statement by quickly reminding the APC that it lost in the last year's general election where the PDP won two Senatorial seats in Ondo state (Central and South) with five House of Representatives' seats, all these are indications that the PDP is still very much relevant in the political clime of Ondo State.

Politics is a game of figures, gladiators, influencers and foolproof strategies and to win an election, one must press the most popular, populous and influential buttons. That is what we've seen come to play in the past weeks. Akeredolu is presently enjoying the full support of every political gladiator within the APC both within and outside the State. The witty and white-bearded man set out immediately after clinching the Party's ticket in July and embarked upon a conciliatory process of visiting and reconciling with aggrieved aspirants who lost to him at the Party's primaries, including, Olusola Oke, Isaac Kekemeke, Olusola Iji and not exempting Olusegun Abraham, Ife Oyedele, Jimi Odimayo who stepped down for him even before the primary Election.

The last Saturday's mega rally in Akure is a testament to the fact that Akeredolu enjoys a broad base of support from big-wigs in the APC. The presence of the National Leader, Tinubu at the Campaign rally cleared every iota of doubt about his support for Akeredolu. Recently, the incumbent was presented with the APC flag at the State House, Abuja with the President giving him his blessings. Contrary to what obtains in the PDP, virtually all APC Governors are backing the second term bid of Akeredolu and with this, he might possibly be on a jolly ride to victory at the polls.

It would be interesting to know that the former Governor of Ondo State, Dr. Olusegun Mimiko who was a staunch supporter of Eyitayo Jegede in the 2016 Election is now the National Leader of Agboola Ajayi's ZLP. Earlier in July, Oyo State Governor, Engineer Seyi Makinde with some PDP stalwarts had visited the Ondo residence of Mimiko to seek his support for the Party, as Makinde noted that Mimiko was still a force to reckon with as far as Ondo politics is concerned but, Governor Akeredolu had debunked the claim, stressing that Mimiko is dead politically and perhaps, Ajayi could resurrect him while insisting that Jegede is serious minded and worthy of the office of Governor. Recall that Mimiko contested for the Senatorial seat of Ondo Central on the platform of ZLP in the 2019 general election but couldn't make headways.

Also, the instrumentality of the man called Jimoh Ibrahim should not be hastily shoved aside as regards Ondo elections. You will recall that the business tycoon was a parallel candidate of the PDP with Eyitayo Jegede in the 2016 polls and as it was speculated in some quarters, he was the cause of the monumental loss of the PDP in that election as Jegede was running in and out of court. Even, some were of the opinion that he came purposefully to destabilise the PDP so that Akeredolu might emerge victorious and recently, he defected to the APC, declaring full support for its candidate, Akeredolu.

Jegede will need to up his game this time around, if he must get something tangible from this election. According to some reports, he is a supporter of the PDP presidential candidate in the 2019 election, Atiku Abubakar and this did not go down well with some PDP Governors like Nyesom Wike of Rivers State who might be nursing the ambition of contesting the seat of President in 2023. Likewise, his emergence and the choice of his running mate is largely dividing the Party, as scores have defected to the ZLP in recent days.

A very important issue to consider in the coming polls is the role of money in vote buying. Akeredolu, who is the incumbent Governor has unhindered access to public funds that he could spend at whim and Jegede even confirmed that that was what made him loose at the last polls, he admitted that he was overspent and glaringly, history might repeat itself this time if the electorates are swayed by vote buying. Agboola Ajayi seems financially stronger than Jegede because of his(now strained) access to government funds and might somewhat matchup with the incumbent, if this be the case, then the tune might just be played for the highest bidder.

The political architecture of Ondo State is really intricate and there is difficulty in confidently predicting who comes out victorious. There is political tension in Alagbaka and it will take God and decisive actions towards peace to calm the tension and prevent the drumbeats of war; a possible replica of the 1983 electoral violence in this State in an election between the incumbent Adekunle Ajasin of the UPN and his deputy, Omoboriowo of the NPC.

Paragon Sleuth sues for peace and advocates for a peaceful, credible, free and fair election by the electoral umpire, the Independent National electoral commission(INEC).